San Francisco Historical Replay: 2004-04 to 2006-09
Replay 30 monthly bars from April 2004 to September 2006 as a San Francisco property market closed up 31.4%. Work through six decision points, including two critical ones, and receive an AI coach review after each simulated historical day.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2004-04 to 2006-09 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 0.9% with a 32.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −0.9%
- Max run-up
- +32.6%
- Largest single-month move
- +2.5%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The San Francisco property market in the spring of 2004 presented a deceptively calm landscape. As the United States entered the early years of what would later be recognized as the subprime lending boom, Bay Area real estate had already begun its ascent. This 30-month replay tests whether participants can recognize the subtle dynamics of an apparently steady market, where modest monthly fluctuations masked underlying systemic shifts. With six decision points embedded across the period, including two critical junctures that demanded decisive action, the scenario forces engagement with uncertainty even when headline numbers appear tranquil.
The numbers tell a story of steady appreciation with remarkably contained volatility. The index rose from 164.65 to 216.37, representing a solid 31.4% gain over the period. Yet this growth occurred with a maximum drawdown of just 0.9% and a largest single-bar move of only 2.5%, creating an environment where complacency could easily take root. The low amplitude of price swings during these two and a half years made it difficult for even seasoned observers to anticipate the vulnerabilities building beneath the surface.
This replay offers a masterclass in the psychology of bull markets. The discipline it cultivates is not about predicting market peaks but about maintaining rigorous analysis when everything seems to be working. Participants learn to distinguish between healthy growth and unsustainable patterns, to question apparent stability, and to prepare decision frameworks before critical moments arrive. The value lies not in hindsight knowledge of how the era ended, but in sharpening the process and temperament needed to navigate periods of seductive calm.
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