US 20-City Composite Historical Replay: 2004-04 to 2006-09
Replay 30 monthly bars of the US 20-City Index from April 2004 to September 2006, watching the index climb 29.9% as the property bubble inflated. You navigate 6 decision points, including 2 critical moments, with day-by-day simulation and an AI coach review of your choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2004-04 to 2006-09 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 0.3% with a 30.3% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −0.3%
- Max run-up
- +30.3%
- Largest single-month move
- +2.0%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The US 20-City Composite Index traces one of the most remarkable chapters in American housing history. Between April 2004 and September 2006, the market captured the peak of the subprime lending boom, when easy credit and speculative fervor drove residential real estate to seemingly unstoppable heights. For participants in this replay, the stakes were clear: navigate an environment where conventional risk metrics suggested stability while hidden systemic vulnerabilities accumulated beneath the surface.
The numbers reveal a market in steady ascent. The index climbed from 158.47 to 205.8, delivering a 29.9% return over 30 monthly bars. Remarkably, the maximum drawdown registered just 0.3%, and the largest single-month move measured only 2.0%. Six decision points punctuated this trajectory, including two marked as critical junctures where positioning choices carried amplified consequences.
The bubble's deceptive calm makes this scenario a powerful training ground. Such sustained, low-volatility gains condition traders to accept risk rather than question it. Participants must practice the discipline of looking beyond price charts at underlying credit conditions, leverage levels, and market sentiment. The two critical decision points force confrontation with the psychological challenge of bubble environments: when to trust the trend and when to anticipate reversal. This replay ultimately teaches that apparent stability can mask fragility, and that sound decision processes matter more than short-term outcomes when navigating historically complex periods.
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