Natural Gas Historical Replay: 2016-11 to 2017-02
Replay a brutal 58-day natural gas slide that erased 20.7% from 3.23 to 2.56, punctuated by a 34.9% drawdown. You will step through each daily bar, face 11 decision points including 4 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
58 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2016-11 to 2017-02 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 85 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 34.9% and a 21.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −34.9%
- Max run-up
- +21.7%
- Duration
- 85 days
- Largest single-day move
- −10.5%
- Bars
- 58 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Natural gas entered the final weeks of 2016 as part of the broader "black series" commodity surge that dominated markets. The period from 2016-11 to 2017-02 placed energy traders in one of the sector's most punishing environments: a sustained, grinding downtrend that tested conviction and forced every participant to confront mounting losses. For commodity markets dependent on seasonal demand signals and weather surprises, this window stripped away easy narratives and left only hard price reality.
The data span covers 58 daily bars, with close erasing 20.7% from 3.23 to 2.56. The max drawdown of 34.9% reveals that peak-to-trough pain far exceeded the headline loss, meaning most positions would have been underwater well before any recovery materialized. The largest single-bar move of 10.5% underscores the volatile nature of natural gas, where overnight gaps and sharp reversals can overwhelm careful analysis. Across this brutal stretch, 11 decision points emerged, including 4 critical junctures where directional conviction was most severely tested.
This replay teaches that surviving extended drawdowns requires process discipline over prediction confidence. A 34.9% max drawdown can arrive while overall losses appear manageable, challenging traders to distinguish temporary weakness from structural breakdown. The 10.5% single-bar volatility reminds us that risk models must account for intraday extremes, not just close-to-close moves. Participants who maintained position discipline and sought AI coach review at each of the 11 decision points built the habits that separate methodical traders from reactive ones.