US 20-City Composite Historical Replay: 2004-12 to 2007-05
Replay 30 monthly bars of the US 20-City index from 2004-12 to 2007-05 as it climbed 14.5% toward a historic peak. Step through the housing bubble bar by bar, make decisions at 6 key decision points, and receive an AI coach review of each choice. Simulated capital only, purely educational.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2004-12 to 2007-05 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 3.1% with a 18.1% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −3.1%
- Max run-up
- +18.1%
- Largest single-month move
- +1.6%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The US 20-City Composite Home Price Index entered December 2004 near 174.83, launching a participant into 30 months of monthly bars that would ultimately trace one of the most celebrated bubbles in modern financial history. This replay compresses that ascent through May 2007, when the index stood at 200.12, a 14.5% climb that concealed the fragility beneath a seemingly relentless advance. Six decision points—two marked as critical—invite reflection on how to navigate a market that rewards conviction yet punishes overconfidence.
Against the drama of the surrounding narrative, the numbers themselves appear almost tranquil. The index gained 14.5% across 30 monthly bars with a maximum drawdown of only 3.1% and a largest single-bar move of just 1.6%. There was no dramatic crash visible within this window, only a steady drift upward that made the eventual reversal invisible in real time. Participants experience the quiet tension of a market that refuses to signal its own exhaustion through volatility.
This replay trains decision-makers to question the quality of their convictions under conditions of false calm. The lesson is not that bubbles are impossible to spot in hindsight, but that they are extraordinarily difficult to act upon while unfolding. Participants practice calibrating position size against low measured risk, resisting the pull of narrative momentum, and maintaining process discipline when price action offers no alarm. The psychological anchor here is humility: the ability to hold a position confidently while simultaneously preparing to exit systematically.