Property Archive
National and city-level housing cycles on monthly bars — slow, leverage-heavy and deeply cyclical. Property replays train patience and position sizing over decades.
90 archive files
2021 · Property · US
November 2021: The Rate Shock That Split America's Housing Market
Rate hikes collided with pandemic-era property gains, splitting US cities into outperformers and laggards across a 30-month housing cycle.
Read the file →2021 · Property · US
February 2021: When Two Property Markets Began to Diverge
February 2021 marked a turning point as US pandemic housing booms and China's tightening crackdown set divergent 30-month trajectories through 2023.
Read the file →2021 · Property · US
June 2021: The Fed's U-Turn and the Housing Market's First Real Test
When monetary stimulus began unwinding in mid-2021, US residential property faced its first major stress test in years as the Federal Reserve signaled tighter policy ahead.
Read the file →2020 · Property · US
October 2020: US Property Boom Begins, Eleven-City Housing Replay (2020–2023)
The US housing market entered an extraordinary boom in late 2020, driven by pandemic-era demand shifts. This replay traces the 2020-10 to 2023-03 window across 11 cities.
Read the file →2020 · Property · US
February 2020–August 2022: How Record-Low Rates and Remote Work Reshaped American Housing
US urban housing surged 2020–2022, powered by pandemic-era low rates and shifting demand. 22 city-level replays capture the boom's mechanics.
Read the file →2020 · Property · US
November 2020–April 2023: The U.S. Property Boom That Defied Every Prediction
How rock-bottom interest rates ignited the most sustained U.S. residential property surge in memory—and what cities diverged when the dust settled.
Read the file →2019 · Property · US
2019: The Great Property Divergence — US Boom vs. China Cooling
July 2019 began two parallel property stories: Phoenix up 55.8%, Shanghai down 48.5% max drawdown. A 30-month divergence across 14 markets.
Read the file →2018 · Property · US
March 2018: The Fed's Rate Hike Cycle and Global Property Markets Under Pressure
The Federal Reserve's March 2018 rate-hike launch tested US and China property markets over 30 months—some cities absorbed rising rates, others buckled.
Read the file →2018 · Property · US
2018–2021: The Great Property Divergence — US Resilience vs. Chinese Urban Cooling
Two property universes, one pandemic. US markets climbed while Chinese cities collapsed — a divergence rooted in policy, leverage, and information asymmetry.
Read the file →2017 · Property · US
2017 US-China City Property Boom: Low Volatility, High Discipline
2017–2019 US and China urban property markets delivered steady gains with compressed volatility—a training ground for disciplined decision-making under deceptive calm.
Read the file →2016 · Property · CN
China Property 2016: De-Stocking Surge Meets the Housing Principle Pivot
Surging mortgage credit and escalating home prices met sudden municipal curbs and an overarching policy pivot. Covers China property in 2016.
Read the file →2016 · Property · US
2016: How Two Property Markets Learned the Same Low-Volatility Lesson
China tier-1 and US coastal property surged into sustained low-volatility advances in 2016, proving that quiet markets and safe markets are not the same thing.
Read the file →2016 · Property · US
Summer 2016: Why Identical Macro Conditions Produced 21.4% Gains in Seattle and 9.7% Gains in New York
US city housing entered mid-2016 on a synchronized recovery—but within 30 months, Seattle had surged 21.4% while New York gained only 9.7%. Same index, divergent cities, the same post-crisis decade.
Read the file →2015 · Property · US
2015–2017: When Property Markets Climbed Without Falling
A deep dive into the 2010s property boom, tracing US and China city indices through a 30-month climb with near-zero drawdowns and the training lessons buried inside that calm.
Read the file →2015 · Property · US
2015-12: The Fed's First Post-Crisis Hike and the Calm That Followed in US Property
In December 2015 the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade, testing US property markets already in multi-year recovery. The reaction was remarkably muted.
Read the file →2015 · Property · US
Summer 2015: The Low-Volatility Bull — How Eleven US Property Markets Taught Traders to Trust the Trend
July 2015–December 2017: US residential property entered a sustained advance with minimal turbulence across eleven city indices. How did low volatility reshape decision habits?
Read the file →2014 · Property · US
September 2014: The Steady Climb — US Housing Enters Its Low-Volatility Recovery Phase
In September 2014, eleven US property markets began a 30-month replay of the post-crisis rebound, delivering steady gains with drawdowns under 2%.
Read the file →2012 · Property · BG
October 2012: Seven National Property Markets Begin a Coordinated Ascent
Seven national property indices began climbing together in October 2012, riding low rates and policy support through a rare sustained bull phase with minimal drawdowns.
Read the file →2012 · Property · US
December 2012: The Turning Point When US Housing Found Its Footing After Crisis
US housing's post-crisis turning point: how a shattered market found its footing from late 2012. Property boom, recovery dynamics.
Read the file →2012 · Property · US
January 2012: U.S. Housing Emerges into Recovery — Twelve Cities, One Question
January 2012: U.S. housing exits crisis into a recovery boom, testing whether early price gains signal sustainable rebound across twelve city-level markets.
Read the file →2011 · Property · US
2011 US Property: The Tentative Recovery That Rewrote City Economies
Spring 2011 — US housing emerged from its worst collapse in decades. Twelve city indices and two national benchmarks entered a fragile rebound that tested every investor's conviction.
Read the file →2010 · Property · US
2010: Two Property Markets, Two Diverging Fates — US Bottoming, China Overheating
US housing emerged from subprime wreckage seeking a floor while China's property boom faced its first major regulatory crackdown — a tale of two markets at opposite phases of the cycle.
Read the file →2010 · Property · US
October 2010: Divergent Recovery — US Housing Markets Navigate Fragile Post-Crisis Terrain
Sixteen city and national property markets from October 2010 reveal divergent recovery paths after the housing crash — some cities stabilizing, others still falling.
Read the file →2009 · Property · US
2009 Property Markets: The Great Divergence After the Subprime Crash
Spring 2009 found global property markets at a crossroads—US cities still searching for a bottom after the subprime collapse, while Canada and China embarked on divergent recovery paths.
Read the file →2009 · Property · BG
July 2009: Four National Property Replays and the Divergent Paths of Post-Crisis Housing Markets
Four national property replays started July 2009 — Norway gained 29.9%, Hungary 23.0%, the US 14.9%, while Bulgaria fell 10.1% by October 2016.
Read the file →2009 · Property · US
2009-11 to 2012-04: The Second Leg — US Housing Markets Grind Lower
Thirty months after the subprime crash, US housing entered a grinding bottoming phase with cities diverging sharply — Atlanta lost 22.7% while Boston fell only 4.4%.
Read the file →2008 · Property · US
December 2008: U.S. Housing Market in the Aftermath — 11 Cities, Divergent Fates
Thirty months after the global financial crisis erupted, U.S. housing continued its grinding unwinding across 11 cities — Phoenix down 19%, San Francisco up 3.3%.
Read the file →2008 · Property · US
2008: The U.S. Housing Collapse — When the Air Came Out of the American Dream
January 2008 found U.S. housing at a precipice. What followed reshaped finance, policy, and the American economy for a generation.
Read the file →2008 · Property · US
2008 U.S. Housing: The Subprime Cascade and the Multi-Year Bottom
When the U.S. property market turned in 2008, national prices entered a multi-year contraction that tested the entire global financial structure.
Read the file →2008 · Property · US
August 2008: The U.S. Housing Crash and the Anatomy of a Contagion
The summer of 2008 marked the full eruption of the U.S. subprime crisis as property indices across American cities began a descent that would reshape financial markets globally for years to come.
Read the file →2008 · Property · BG
2008 Property Markets: How Identical Shocks Produced Opposite Outcomes
Six national property indices reveal how the 2008 crisis hit markets differently—China's stimulus versus Bulgaria's 35.6% loss.
Read the file →2008 · Property · CA
2008 Property Markets: Navigating Post-Crisis Recovery in Canada and the United States
July 2008 to October 2015 — CA and US residential property markets through the post-crisis recovery era, 30 monthly bars across two nations with diverging trajectories.
Read the file →2007 · Property · US
2007 October: The US Housing Crash and Global Property Crisis — Thirty Months That Rewrote Risk
Oct 2007–Mar 2010: US housing indices fell continuously; Phoenix recorded a 48.4% max drawdown, with contagion spreading to Bulgaria.
Read the file →2007 · Property · CA
2007 Summer: Two Housing Markets, Two Trajectories
In summer 2007, Canadian and US property markets stood at similar valuations—then diverged sharply through the crisis years. How?
Read the file →2006 · Property · CA
2006-07: Two Housing Markets, One Divergence
When two housing markets diverged from the same starting gate in mid-2006—one steadier, one in structural retreat through the post-crisis years.
Read the file →2006 · Property · US
February 2006: The US Housing Market Reaches Its Peak
When Phoenix and San Diego began their 33% slide in early 2006, few recognized the structural inflection that would reshape American finance for a decade.
Read the file →2006 · Property · US
October 2006: US City Housing Indices Peak — The Start of a Property Collapse That Reshaped Global Finance
In October 2006, the US 10-city composite housing index closed at 222.78. Over the next 30 months, it would fall 30.7% as the subprime crisis unfolded.
Read the file →2005 · Property · BG
April 2005: National Eight Articles and the Global Property Market Divide
China's 2005 property tightening set off a decade-long experiment in policy-driven cooling—against a backdrop of eight markets that would diverge wildly as the global credit crisis approached.
Read the file →2005 · Property · CA
2005-07: Six Nations, One Housing Storm — The Global Property Replay
Six national housing indices from July 2005 to October 2012 reveal divergent outcomes when the 2008 crisis hit property markets worldwide.
Read the file →2005 · Property · BG
2005: Two Property Markets, One Shock, Divergent Collapse
In 2005, two overheating property markets set the stage for the 2008 crisis. Bulgaria's drawdown reached 45.3%, the UK's 25.8%.
Read the file →2005 · Property · US
2005 US Property: Boom, Divergence, and the Seeds of Crisis
US housing in 2005 looked buoyant, but city-level data showed cracks. This 30-month replay window captures a market at a critical turning point.
Read the file →2004 · Property · US
2004: US Housing Bubble — The Low-Volatility Illusion
17 US housing replays, 2004–2011: low-volatility boom masked fragility; subprime expansion ended in crisis.
Read the file →2004 · Property · US
June 2004: The U.S. Housing Bubble's Final Acceleration — When Low Volatility Became a Warning Signal
In mid-2004, U.S. housing entered its last surge phase. Case-Shiller indices climbed without meaningful correction, lulling participants before the 2008 reckoning.
Read the file →2003 · Property · US
2003–2005: The Low-Volatility Paradox — How Zero Drawdowns Rewired American Housing Risk
Thirty months of unbroken US housing appreciation, with max drawdowns near zero across thirteen markets, created a risk calculus that unraveled only years later.
Read the file →2003 · Property · CA
October 2003: Five Nations, One Property Boom, Divergent Fates
A single month saw five national property indices open in unison—only to split wildly over the next 30 months. Canada surged 57.5%; the UK barely budged. The divergence began in plain sight.
Read the file →2003 · Property · US
2003: The Zero-Drawdown Housing Market and the Psychology of Stability
June 2003: the Fed had cut rates, housing was climbing, and American cities entered a 30-month run with nearly zero drawdowns. What could go wrong?
Read the file →2002 · Property · CA
2002-01: Four Property Markets, Four Risk Profiles — The BIS Boom That Wasn't One Crisis
Four national property indices embarked on divergent 2000s trajectories from January 2002, each telling a different story about returns, drawdowns, and volatility discipline.
Read the file →2002 · Property · US
2002–2004: The Smooth Ascent — US Housing's Quietest Boom and Its Invisible Traps
In early 2004, the Fed began raising rates after two years of uninterrupted monthly gains across 13 US and Chinese markets — zero drawdowns masked growing vulnerabilities.
Read the file →2002 · Property · US
August 2002 – January 2005: The Zero-Drawdown Housing Rally That Rewrote Market Assumptions
Eleven US housing markets climbed 28–59% over 30 months without a single monthly drawdown — a record that rewrote assumptions about real estate risk.
Read the file →2001 · Property · US
October 2001: The Subprime Lending Boom Begins — US Housing Enters Its Acceleration Phase
In October 2001, the US housing market entered an unprecedented acceleration phase as subprime lending reshaped property valuations across major cities, creating the foundation for the 2000s bubble.
Read the file →2000 · Property · CN
2000: Two Markets, One Policy Era — China Housing Reform and Hungary's EU Decade
China's 1998 housing reform met its first market test in 2000; Hungary's EU-bound boom was just beginning. Two indices, two risk profiles, two lessons.
Read the file →2000 · Property · NO
2000–2008: Two Property Booms, One Oil-Fueled Decade
October 2000 opened two national property indexes at 63.66 and 241.54 — their divergent volatility over seven years teaches how fuel source shapes market character.
Read the file →1999 · Property · US
1999: The Quiet Opening — How Steady Gains Built the American Housing Bubble
In March 1999, US housing entered an era of frictionless appreciation. Ten cities, zero drawdowns, 30 bars of steady climb — and the slow birth of a crisis.
Read the file →1998 · Property · US
1998 Spring: US Housing's Low-Volatility Boom — Zero Drawdowns and the Complacency Trap
In spring 1998 the US property market entered a sustained ascent. Boston at 80.2, San Francisco at 77.48 — the data shows a systematic low-volatility boom that planted the seeds of its own undoing.
Read the file →1998 · Property · BG
1998: Three Markets, Three Transitions — Property Markets in China, Bulgaria, and Norway
Three nations launched parallel property experiments in 1998: China's housing commercialization, Bulgaria's post-communist stabilization, and Norway's oil-fueled ascent.
Read the file →1997 · Property · CA
1997–2004: Canada and Norway Property Booms — The Long Climb and the Decision Points It Demanded
Two national housing markets climbed steadily through the late 1990s and early 2000s, rewarding holders who resisted overtrading. Canada rose 50.1%, Norway 63.7%.
Read the file →1997 · Property · US
1997-03 to 1999-08: The Quiet US Property Boom — A Thirty-Month Lesson in Complacency Risk
Ten US cities, thirty monthly bars, and nearly zero drawdown — how a steady property climb tests decision-makers who face no obvious crisis to react to.
Read the file →1996 · Property · CA
1996: The Quiet Property Boom — Five Markets, One Shared Lesson
Five national property indices rose in unison without meaningful correction, demanding a different kind of discipline from traders and investors.
Read the file →1996 · Property · US
1996–1998: The Steady Ascent — How US and Norway Property Markets Rewrote the Risk Handbook
A 30-month property boom across ten US cities and Norway delivered 11–28% gains with near-zero drawdowns, a market regime that stressed process over prophecy.
Read the file →1995 · Property · FI
1995–2002: Three Markets, One Boom — Why Parallel Uptrends Tell Different Risk Stories
Mid-1990s to early 2000s saw residential property surge across Finland, UK, and US — yet the same boom masked wildly different volatility profiles and institutional lessons.
Read the file →1995 · Property · US
1995–1997 US Property: The Steady Ascent That Tested Patience
In the mid-1990s, US property markets entered a sustained but muted upswing across ten cities. The headline narrative promised growth, yet the actual price trajectory demanded precision and patience.
Read the file →1995 · Property · US
1995–1997: The Quiet Bull — US City Property Markets and the Discipline of Low-Volatility Appreciation
A 30-month US property boom with single-digit city gains and remarkably contained drawdowns, testing decision-makers in an environment where the hardest trade was doing nothing.
Read the file →1994 · Property · FI
1994 Property Boom: Finland, UK, and US Divergent Recovery in BIS Historical Scenarios
Three national property markets—Finland, UK, and US—emerged from the early 1990s recession with strikingly different volatility profiles, all replayable in BIS scenarios spanning 1994–2001.
Read the file →1994 · Property · US
1994 to 1996: The Quiet Property Boom — When Patient Capital Won by Doing Nothing
A deep dive into U.S. property markets from 1994 to 1996, where Phoenix surged 14.5% with zero drawdown and Atlanta climbed 10.2% without a single losing month.
Read the file →1993 · Property · US
1993–1995: The Quiet Recovery — How U.S. Property Emerged From Recession Without Drama
March 1993 began a 30-bar post-recession recovery across U.S. and Norway property markets — labeled a boom, but delivering outcomes from 15.6% gains to a 4.2% loss depending on the city.
Read the file →1992 · Property · FI
October 1992: Three Property Markets, Three Recovery Paths
Three national property indices opened October 1992 at different levels—38.69 (Finland), 45 (UK), 175.45 (US)—and began distinct multi-year recoveries through the 1990s.
Read the file →1992 · Property · CA
July 1992: Three Property Markets, Three Futures — Canada, Norway, and the United States on the Same Starting Line
July 1992 baseline: Canada's index at 45.03, Norway's at 36, the US at 174.58. Over the next 7 years, three nations produced three very different return profiles in property.
Read the file →1992 · Property · US
1992–1994: Nine U.S. Property Markets and the Divergent Recovery Nobody Predicted
1992–1994: US property markets in post-recession recovery—Case-Shiller national index +5.9%, Phoenix +11.5%, San Diego -6.5%, 9 cities analyzed
Read the file →1991 · Property · FI
1991 October: Three Markets, Three Recovery Paths — The BIS/FHFA Property Boom
In October 1991, UK, Finland and US property markets embarked on divergent recovery paths after recession, testing investor resolve across three distinct volatility profiles over the next eight years.
Read the file →1991 · Property · CA
1991-07: Norway Oil Boom vs Canada Choppy Recovery — Two Property Markets, Divergent Paths
Two national property indices from the same starting date: Norway's oil-fueled boom delivered 35.7% against Canada's 6.2% grinding recovery, testing different decision regimes over 30 months.
Read the file →1990 · Property · CA
July 1990: Three Property Markets Diverge — Patience, Pain, and the 1990s Recovery
Three national property markets began the 1990s on divergent paths: Norway's oil boom, Canada's recession, and America's recovery all unfolded over the same seven years.
Read the file →1990 · Property · FI
October 1990: UK and Finland Property Markets Enter Divergent Collapses
Two national property indices opened October 1990 at similar heights — one entered a grinding seven-year decline, the other a catastrophic contraction triggered by geopolitical collapse.
Read the file →1990 · Property · US
1990 U.S. Property: When the Slow Grind Arrived First
NBER dated recession from July 1990; US property markets had already begun declining in March, with Boston suffering the worst drawdown of 11.6% across the 30-month replay.
Read the file →1989 · Property · US
1989: When the S&L Crisis Met Two Regional Property Markets
In 1989, the S&L crisis hit regional property markets unevenly—Phoenix fell 3.9% while Minneapolis gained 2.9%, a study in divergent resilience.
Read the file →1989 · Property · US
1989–1991: When the S&L Crisis Met American Property Markets
The Savings and Loan crisis met US property markets in 1989, creating divergent regional outcomes across six city replays spanning 30 months of monthly bars.
Read the file →1989 · Property · CA
1989-1996: Five Property Markets, One Overheat — Why Some Collapsed While Others Recovered
When global property peaked in 1989, five nations diverged sharply. Finland crashed 39.8%, the UK fell 28.9%, Norway dropped 25.4%, Canada wobbled 8.4%, and the US barely flinched at 0.4%.
Read the file →1988 · Property · CA
1988-10: The BIS Property Collapse — Nordic Overhang, Canadian Cooling, and the British Reckoning
From October 1988, four nations' property indices embarked on divergent paths through banking crises, recessions, and credit contraction, reshaping a decade.
Read the file →1987 · Property · CA
1987 October: Three Property Markets, One Shock, Divergent Fates
Three BIS national property replays launched from October 1987 — Finland ground down by banking crisis, the UK caught in recession, Canada absorbing the shock. Identical structures, opposite outcomes.
Read the file →1987 · Property · US
January 1987: Two Property Crises, One Window, No Single Story
Two crises tagged the same month—US S&L fallout and Norwegian banking strain—yet the property outcomes diverged sharply, testing decision-makers in opposite directions.
Read the file →1985 · Property · CA
1985–1992: Four National Property Markets — Divergent Recovery, Hidden Crises
Four nations, one market type, vastly different trajectories: how aggregate data concealed regional crises and what that means for decision training.
Read the file →1985 · Property · FI
1985–1993: Nordic Property — From Exuberance to Contraction
Finland and UK property markets diverged sharply through the late 1980s boom and early 1990s recession, testing position sizing and drawdown management under extreme volatility.
Read the file →1984 · Property · CA
October 1984: Four National Property Markets Enter a Boom — and Diverge Sharply
Four national property indices launched October 1984; divergent trajectories followed through 1992. The lesson: same boom, radically different drawdown experiences.
Read the file →1983 · Property · CA
October 1983: Three National Property Markets Enter Expansion — BIS Launches Parallel Replay Experiments
Three national property markets entered simultaneous expansion in late 1983, prompting BIS to launch parallel replay experiments for decision training. US, CA, FI. 1983–1991.
Read the file →1981 · Property · CA
1981–1989: Three Markets, One Boom, Three Lessons in Volatility
The 1980s property surge across Norway, Finland and Canada tested every assumption about real estate as a stable store of value — with outcomes that diverged sharply.
Read the file →1979 · Property · CA
October 1979: The BIS Property Boom That Split Two Economies
How Norway's property boom and Canada's rate shock diverged under the same BIS framework — 1979–1987.
Read the file →1978 · Property · FI
1978: Nordic-British Property Boom — Oil, Stagflation, and the Divergent Decade
In 1978, property markets across Norway, Finland, and the UK faced divergent fates: oil-fueled momentum, post-war prosperity, and stagflationary headwinds.
Read the file →1978 · Property · CA
October 1978: Three Property Markets, Three Fates — The BIS National Replay Cluster
Three national property replays launched in October 1978, each embedding six decision points across 30 monthly bars from the stagflation era into the 1980s growth cycle.
Read the file →1977 · Property · FI
1977: Nordic Property Under the North Sea Oil Boom
1977, Nordic property. Norway rose 31%, Finland 130% over 7 years — oil money reshaped capital flows into real assets.
Read the file →1976 · Property · FI
1976–1983: Finland vs UK Property — Divergent Booms in Post-Crisis Recovery
Two property markets emerged from the 1970s energy crisis on opposite trajectories — Finland surged 117.9%, the UK barely rose 19.0%.
Read the file →1970 · Property · CA
1970s Property Boom: Four Nations, Four Risk Profiles — One Silent Warning
Four nations, one decade: Canada's 132.5% gain vs Norway's flat -1.0% taught investors entirely different lessons about volatility, drawdown, and the patience required to hold through a cycle.
Read the file →