Cotton Historical Replay: 2019-11 to 2020-05
Replay 124 daily bars of cotton from November 2019, navigating a 32.3% drawdown that reshaped the soft commodity landscape. Step through each authentic market day, face 7 critical decision points, and receive AI coach review on your simulated trades in this educational historical scenario.
124 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2019-11 to 2020-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 181 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 32.3% and a 20.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −32.3%
- Max run-up
- +20.5%
- Duration
- 181 days
- Largest single-day move
- +5.6%
- Bars
- 124 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Cotton markets entering November 2019 were navigating familiar seasonal patterns as participants weighed harvest data and export flows. Yet the seeds of unprecedented disruption were already germinating. The 124 daily bars spanning into May 2020 would expose traders to a shock unlike any recent memory—a global pandemic that would test conviction and discipline alike. With seven critical decision points embedded across this span, the scenario placed every participant at the nexus of uncertainty and consequence.
What unfolded was a sustained erosion punctuated by violent snaps. Cotton opened at 64.27 and ultimately settled at 57.46, a decline of 10.6%. Beneath that headline number lurked a maximum drawdown of 32.3%, with the largest single-bar move reaching 5.6%. The 2010s gave way to the 2020s not with a whimper but with a wrenching repricing that reshaped the soft commodity landscape entirely.
The lesson crystallizes around process over prediction. Twenty-one decision points demanded disciplined frameworks—position sizing, stop logic, and emotional detachment from the chaos. Seven critical nodes stripped away the comfort of hindsight, forcing real-time judgment under pressure. This replay trains the muscle of acting on probability rather than reacting to outcome, an orientation that separates educational practice from mere historical observation.
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