Cocoa Historical Replay: 2016-09 to 2017-03
Cocoa dropped 27.9% from 2728 to 1967 between September 2016 and March 2017 amid a 33.4% peak drawdown. Replay the 110 daily bars step by step, tackle 19 decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your reasoning. Simulated capital, educational use only.
110 daily bars · 19 decision points · 2016-09 to 2017-03 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 162 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 33.4% and a 9.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −33.4%
- Max run-up
- +9.7%
- Duration
- 162 days
- Largest single-day move
- +4.8%
- Bars
- 110 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 19
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Cocoa futures traded under the shadow of a historic policy shift when Donald Trump's November 2016 election surprised financial markets. The soft commodity complex faced fresh uncertainty as currency markets reeled from dollar strength, creating a complex backdrop for price discovery. This 110-bar daily replay spans September 29, 2016 to March 10, 2017, placing traders inside 19 decision points where directional conviction would be repeatedly tested.
The arithmetic of the period is stark: cocoa fell 27.9% from 2728 to 1967, accompanied by a peak drawdown of 33.4%. A single-day swing of 4.8% underscored the underlying volatility, while seven critical decision points demanded disciplined risk management amid sustained downward pressure. The 110 trading days offered no easy refuge, turning the replay into a rigorous examination of analytical resolve.
This scenario strips away hindsight bias to confront participants with authentic analytical challenges. Each decision point tests how drawdown tolerance, position sizing, and process discipline withstand an unrelenting trend. The psychology of loss and the temptation to catch a falling blade become tangible concerns when simulated capital is at stake. AI coach review reveals the gap between sound reasoning and execution under pressure, reinforcing that surviving extended drawdowns requires both system and temperament.