Cocoa Historical Replay: 2011-07 to 2012-01
Cocoa prices plunged 28.3% from 3164 to 2270 between July 2011 and January 2012, hitting a 39.2% drawdown as the EU debt crisis deepened. Replay each daily bar, face 22 decision points, and receive an AI coach review in this simulated educational training.
126 daily bars · 22 decision points · 2011-07 to 2012-01 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 182 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 39.2% and a 21.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −39.2%
- Max run-up
- +21.4%
- Duration
- 182 days
- Largest single-day move
- −7.8%
- Bars
- 126 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 22
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The cocoa market in mid-2011 navigated treacherous waters as the European debt crisis intensified and spread beyond sovereign borders. Financial stress in the eurozone began affecting global commodity flows, currency stability, and risk appetite across markets. This replay spans the period from July 19, 2011 to January 17, 2012, challenging participants to manage positions through 126 daily bars of deteriorating conditions.
Cocoa prices fell from 3164 to 2270, a decline of -28.3%, as demand signals weakened and fund flows rotated away from risk assets. The market endured a maximum drawdown of 39.2%, with the largest single-bar move reaching 7.8%, creating moments of acute stress for any position held through the slide. Participants face 22 decision points across this historical period, with 8 classified as critical junctures where directional conviction and risk management were tested simultaneously.
This replay trains decision-makers to handle slow-burning crises where fundamentals erode gradually but market sentiment can shift violently overnight. The gap between the -28.3% overall decline and the 39.2% peak drawdown highlights how poorly-timed exits can transform a manageable position into a devastating loss. Process discipline, pre-defined risk thresholds, and emotional regulation during the largest 7.8% single-bar moves become the true subjects of evaluation rather than directional accuracy alone.