Cocoa Historical Replay: 2008-08 to 2008-11
Relive a 68-day cocoa crash from August to November 2008, where prices plunged 18.9% and volatility topped an 8.7% single-bar move. Replay the historical tape day by day, navigate 12 decision points, and receive an AI coach review in a simulated, educational environment.
68 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2008-08 to 2008-11 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 94 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 35.8% and a 14.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −35.8%
- Max run-up
- +14.6%
- Duration
- 94 days
- Largest single-day move
- +8.7%
- Bars
- 68 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The global financial system was unraveling in August 2008. The subprime mortgage crisis had spread from US housing to broader credit markets, and commodity markets were caught in the crossfire. Cocoa, a soft commodity priced in dollars, faced dual pressure from currency volatility and weakening demand expectations. Over 68 trading days from August 19 to November 21, 2008, this market would test every trader's conviction and risk management discipline.
Cocoa prices collapsed from 2676 to 2170, a decline of 18.9%. The damage extended beyond the headline number—the market experienced a maximum drawdown of 35.8%, meaning any trader holding a long position would have seen peak losses far exceeding the final settlement. Volatility was extreme, with the largest single trading day moving 8.7%, creating treacherous conditions for position sizing and stop-loss execution. Twelve decision points punctuated this period, with four critical moments demanding split-second judgment calls.
This replay trains traders to navigate environments where fundamentals and technicals diverge sharply. Participants learn that surviving a 35.8% drawdown requires position sizing calibrated to worst-case scenarios, not expected outcomes. The scenario drills the discipline of cutting losses before they compound, while resisting the psychological trap of averaging down in a falling market. By replaying authentic 2008 conditions, traders develop the emotional resilience needed when consensus narratives break down and volatility becomes the dominant market feature.