US National (Case-Shiller, 2000+) Historical Replay: 2020-10 to 2023-03
Replay the U.S. national Case-Shiller home price index from October 2020 through March 2023, capturing a 29.4% climb to 297.4 across 30 monthly bars. Walk each decision point day-by-day in simulated capital only, then receive an AI coach review of your housing-market calls.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2020-10 to 2023-03 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 5.0% with a 34.1% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −5.0%
- Max run-up
- +34.1%
- Largest single-month move
- +2.7%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The U.S. national Case-Shiller home price index replay begins in October 2020, as the housing market was experiencing a historic surge driven by pandemic-era relocation trends, record-low mortgage rates, and constrained inventory. Over the next 30 months, through March 2023, participants navigate six decision points—two of them critical—amidst this extraordinary market environment. The scenario captures a system that saw residential real estate prices climb nationally, testing the ability of decision-makers to assess risk, timing, and position sizing in a market characterized by both momentum and volatility.
The index advanced from 229.76 to 297.4, representing a 29.4% total return, with a maximum drawdown of just 5.0% and the largest single monthly move reaching 2.7%. Despite the substantial overall gain, the journey was not linear; participants faced drawdown phases and had to evaluate whether momentum would persist or reverse. The replay forces engagement with questions that defined this era: Was this appreciation sustainable? When would the Federal Reserve pivot? How would rising rates affect affordability and demand?
This replay teaches that housing markets can sustain extended appreciation with contained downside, yet still demand sophisticated risk management. The 5.0% maximum drawdown demonstrates the resilience of residential real estate during this boom cycle, while the largest single-bar movement of 2.7% reveals that even trending markets present decision-making challenges. Participants learn that housing's relative stability compared to equities can mask significant complexity in timing entries and exits, and that long-term demographic and economic forces create windows of opportunity that disciplined decision-makers can exploit—or miss entirely.
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