US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 2012-10 to 2020-01
Replay 30 monthly bars of US national home prices from 2012-10 to 2020-01, watching the FHFA index climb 42.6%. You'll face 6 decision points across this simulated boom and volatility era, then receive an AI coach review of your choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2012-10 to 2020-01 · Property
Key facts
- Max run-up
- +42.6%
- Largest single-month move
- +2.2%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The stage is set in the American housing market, where the FHFA index traces residential price trends across the nation. From October 2012 through January 2020, a span covering parts of the 2010s and entering the 2020s, 30 monthly bars of data await your analysis. This was a period of post-crisis recovery and sustained growth, and the stakes were clear: navigate a market climbing from crisis lows without getting caught in any unexpected reversals.
The numbers tell a steady story. The index rose from 314.69 to 448.64, delivering a total return of 42.6% over the full span. Remarkably, the maximum drawdown was 0.0%, meaning the position never dipped below its entry point on a closing basis. The largest single monthly move registered just 2.2%, reflecting a market that rewarded patience with gradual, consistent appreciation.
Six decision points were embedded in this replay, two marked as critical. For training purposes, the lesson is about building conviction during slow burns: a market that never forces you to act urgently can erode attention just as surely as volatile swings. Process discipline, clear entry and exit criteria, and managing the psychology of complacency become as vital here as risk management in more turbulent periods.
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