US National (Case-Shiller, 2000+) Historical Replay: 2012-01 to 2014-06
Replay the 2012-01 to 2014-06 U.S. national Case-Shiller surge and feel the market climb 23.9% across 30 monthly bars. Step into the role of a decision-maker, navigate 6 decision points (2 critical), and receive an AI coach review in a simulated educational environment.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2012-01 to 2014-06 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 0.6% with a 24.0% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −0.6%
- Max run-up
- +24.0%
- Largest single-month move
- +2.0%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The early 2010s found the U.S. housing market at a fragile inflection point. The Case-Shiller national index, which had suffered a historic collapse, was beginning to show signs of renewed life in January 2012. For participants in this replay, the central question was whether this nascent recovery had substance or was merely another false dawn—and how to position accordingly as data unfolded month by month.
What followed was a sustained advance rather than a dramatic reversal. Across 30 monthly bars from 2012-01 to 2014-06, the index climbed from 134.16 to 166.2, delivering a 23.9% return. The ascent was notably steady: maximum drawdown measured just 0.6%, and the largest single monthly move reached only 2.0%. Six decision points peppered the replay, two of them marked as critical junctures where positioning choices carried amplified consequences.
This scenario tests whether participants can distinguish between a slow-burning recovery and market noise. The challenge lies not in reacting to dramatic moves—the volatility here was minimal—but in maintaining conviction and process discipline when price action is gradual and each monthly bar looks deceptively similar. Managing risk in a low-drawdown environment while avoiding complacency, and timing decisions at critical inflection points, separates effective decision-makers from passive observers.
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