US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 2010-04 to 2017-07
Replay the US national housing recovery from April 2010 to July 2017, watching the FHFA index climb 23.7% across 30 monthly bars. Step through each decision point day by day in this simulated historical scenario and receive an AI coach review of your choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2010-04 to 2017-07 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 5.5% with a 29.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −5.5%
- Max run-up
- +29.6%
- Largest single-month move
- −2.8%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The US national housing market in April 2010 stood at a crossroads. The FHFA Purchase-Only Index had been battered by the subprime crisis, and the 2010s were about to unfold as the market rebuilt trust, stabilized credit, and gradually lifted prices. This replay spans the 2010-04 to 2017-07 window, tracking 30 monthly bars as the index fought through uncertainty toward sustained recovery. Six decision points—two critical—distribute across the period, each demanding a stance on entry, scaling, or holding in an environment that offered no clean script.
The index closed the period at 399.24, rising from 322.84 and delivering a 23.7% gain. That headline number conceals a volatile interior: a maximum drawdown of 5.5% tested every position, and the largest single-bar move of 2.8% reminded participants that even in a rising market, individual months could swing hard against the trend. The path was neither straight nor forgiving, yet the overall trajectory was unmistakably upward.
This episode sharpens decision training on several fronts. Participants learn that conviction in a recovering trend must survive periods of temporary loss—the 5.5% drawdown was the price of participation in a 23.7% move. They also confront the challenge of distinguishing short-term noise from genuine inflection points, because the two critical decision points defined whether the trade stayed the course or abandoned it prematurely. History rewards those who manage risk through volatility rather than flee it, and this replay puts that lesson under the microscope.
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