US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 2001-01 to 2008-04
Replay the U.S. national housing market from January 2001 through April 2008 as it climbed 46.4% on the FHFA index. Step through 30 monthly bars, tackle 6 decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2001-01 to 2008-04 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 4.7% with a 53.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −4.7%
- Max run-up
- +53.6%
- Largest single-month move
- +3.8%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The US national housing market from January 2001 through April 2008 represents one of the most consequential financial periods in modern history. The FHFA index tracked a market gripped by the subprime lending boom, where easy credit and speculative fervor drove prices to heights that would prove unsustainable. This 30-month replay immerses participants in an era when the conventional wisdom held that housing prices only went up. The central challenge was not merely capturing gains but maintaining disciplined judgment amid euphoria that obscured mounting systemic risk.
The price trajectory tells a compelling story of sustained appreciation. The index rose from 247.53 to 362.43, delivering a 46.4% return over the period. Notably, this climb occurred with remarkable smoothness—the maximum drawdown measured just 4.7% and the largest single monthly move reached only 3.8%. These statistics painted a picture of low volatility and consistent returns, rewarding investors who simply held positions through the duration.
This scenario tests decision-making processes under conditions that punish caution. With six decision points including two critical junctures, participants must navigate a market that offered no obvious exit signals until the crisis became undeniable. The experience teaches that stable-looking metrics can mask building fragility, that position sizing matters more than directional conviction, and that psychological discipline—staying objective rather than swept up in prevailing sentiment—determines outcomes more than any predictive model. The 2000s housing bubble remains a masterclass in how extended tranquility lulls participants into forgetting that cycles eventually turn.