Soybean Historical Replay: 2012-06 to 2012-09
Replay the 2012 U.S. drought across 68 daily bars as soybeans climbed 11.4% from June to September. Walk through 12 decision points, including 4 critical moments, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
68 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2012-06 to 2012-09 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 97 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 9.1% and a 23.1% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −9.1%
- Max run-up
- +23.1%
- Duration
- 97 days
- Largest single-day move
- +4.0%
- Bars
- 68 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In the summer of 2012, the United States faced one of its worst droughts in decades, devastating agricultural production across the Midwest. Soybean markets, sensitive to supply shocks, became a focal point for traders navigating an unprecedented weather event. This replay spans 68 daily bars from June 20 to September 25, 2012, placing participants in the shoes of market participants responding to evolving drought conditions and their impact on grain commodities.
The soybean contract rose from 1446.5 to 1611.5 over the period, an 11.4% gain that reflected tightening supply expectations. Yet the path was far from straight: the market experienced a maximum drawdown of 9.1% and witnessed its largest single-bar move of 4.0%, underscoring the volatility that accompanies commodity shocks. Participants faced 12 decision points, including 4 critical moments that tested their ability to process weather reports, USDA data, and shifting sentiment simultaneously.
The 2012 drought scenario exposes fundamental challenges in trading commodity markets under uncertainty. Participants must grapple with asymmetric information, as weather outcomes remain unknowable until they materialize in crop reports. Managing risk through a 9.1% drawdown period requires discipline and position sizing, while the 4.0% single-bar swings test emotional resilience. The 12 decision points across 4 critical junctures force deliberate application of process over impulse, making this replay a rigorous exercise in decision-making under incomplete information.
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