Coke Historical Replay: 2011-07 to 2012-01
Replay the 2011-07 to 2012-01 ferrous slide as coke fell 10.7% across 118 daily bars under deepening euro-area stress. Walk through 21 decision points day by day, defend each call against the tape, and receive an AI coach review in this simulated training environment.
118 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2011-07 to 2012-01 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 176 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 17.9% and a 9.3% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −17.9%
- Max run-up
- +9.3%
- Duration
- 176 days
- Largest single-day move
- +5.8%
- Bars
- 118 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The coking coal market entered the second half of 2011 under mounting pressure from a euro-area debt crisis that was spreading from peripheral economies into core European balance sheets. Coking coal, a critical input for steelmaking, occupies a pivotal position in the ferrous commodity chain, and market participants were acutely aware that any deterioration in European financial stability would ripple through industrial demand expectations globally. The replay period spans from mid-July 2011 through mid-January 2012, a window when sentiment shifted repeatedly as European policymakers struggled to contain contagion while sovereign spreads widened and risk appetite contracted.
The market moved persistently lower over the 118 daily bars covered by this scenario. Coking coal closed the period at 2041, down from an opening of 2286, representing a decline of 10.7%. The journey was not smooth: the maximum drawdown reached 17.9%, and traders faced a largest single-bar move of 5.8% that tested conviction and risk management discipline alike. Across the replay, 21 decision points were presented, with 7 deemed critical moments where positioning and risk control decisions carried outsized consequences for outcomes in the simulated environment.
This replay distills several enduring lessons for market practitioners. First, trending macro crises create directional pressure that can persist beyond short-term oversold readings, requiring disciplined risk calibration rather than premature countertrend bets. Second, the 5.8% single-bar volatility spike underscores the importance of position sizing and drawdown tolerance in commodity trading, as tail moves can rapidly erode capital buffers. Third, the distinction between 21 decision points and 7 critical ones teaches that not every market moment demands action; patience and selective engagement at inflection points preserve optionality and mental capital for when conviction is highest.