Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2018-09 to 2018-12
Replay a heating oil crash from September 5 to December 11, 2018, with prices sliding 17.0% across 68 daily bars. Step through each session, confront 12 decision points, and receive an AI coach review in a simulated educational training environment.
68 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2018-09 to 2018-12 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 97 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 24.6% and a 10.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −24.6%
- Max run-up
- +10.4%
- Duration
- 97 days
- Largest single-day move
- −4.8%
- Bars
- 68 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Heating oil, a critical energy commodity traded on US markets, entered a volatile period from September to December 2018. This replay spans 68 daily bars as prices retreated from elevated levels, placing traders in a sustained downtrend where positions faced mounting pressure. The stakes were significant: declining prices erode margins, test conviction, and force difficult choices about risk management. Participants must navigate a market where the trend was unmistakably negative but where volatility created both danger and opportunity for those with a disciplined approach.
The data span runs from 2018-09-05 to 2018-12-11, with closing prices falling from 2.23 to 1.85, a total decline of -17.0%. Yet the journey was far from linear. A max drawdown of 24.6% and a largest single-bar move of 4.8% reveal the turbulence beneath the surface. These figures underscore that volatility itself becomes a risk factor, punishing those who underestimate the magnitude of intraday reversals. Twelve decision points punctuate the scenario, four of them critical moments where the gap between recovery and capitulation narrowed.
This replay trains decision-makers to confront three core challenges: process, risk, and psychology. The declining market demands adherence to rules even when intuition screams otherwise. Risk management becomes paramount as drawdowns approach the 24.6% ceiling, forcing explicit choices about position sizing and exit timing. Psychologically, extended losses test emotional resilience and the ability to distinguish between a deteriorating market and a temporary mispricing. Educational framing ensures these lessons transfer to future scenarios where market conditions shift without warning.