Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2009-02 to 2009-05
Replay 70 daily bars of heating oil from February to May 2009, when price climbed 18.5% amid extreme volatility. Step into decision points across this simulated historical scenario, make your calls, and receive an AI coach review of your reasoning.
70 daily bars · 13 decision points · 2009-02 to 2009-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 99 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 14.4% and a 36.3% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −14.4%
- Max run-up
- +36.3%
- Duration
- 99 days
- Largest single-day move
- −9.4%
- Bars
- 70 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 13
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In early 2009, US energy markets were navigating extraordinary conditions shaped by the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Heating oil—a critical commodity for millions of American households—became a focal point of volatility as commodity trading experienced fundamental shifts. The period from February to May 2009 presented traders and analysts with a complex landscape where traditional correlations broke down and energy markets responded erratically to macroeconomic signals. This replay challenges participants to navigate uncertainty across 70 daily bars, stepping into decision points without the benefit of hindsight.
Over the data span from February 10 to May 20, 2009, heating oil prices climbed from 1.3 to 1.54, delivering an 18.5% return. However, this upward trajectory was anything but smooth. The market experienced a maximum drawdown of 14.4%, and traders faced a largest single-bar move of 9.4%—moments that would have tested even seasoned professionals. Thirteen decision points emerged throughout this period, with five classified as critical junctions where positioning could have dramatically altered outcomes.
This heating oil boom illustrates why process and psychology matter more than prediction in volatile markets. The 14.4% maximum drawdown would have challenged conviction, while the 9.4% single-bar moves demanded disciplined risk management. Participants must examine how they would manage position sizing during drawdowns, whether they could maintain their thesis through sharp reversals, and how stress might influence their judgment at critical decision points. The historical context reminds us that experiencing market moves in real time—rather than reviewing them in hindsight—fundamentally changes our perception of risk and opportunity.
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