Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2008-11 to 2009-05
Replay 122 daily bars of heating oil from 2008-11-17 to 2009-05-13, capturing a 36.9% maximum drawdown. Walk through 7 critical decision points day-by-day, get AI coach review of each call. Simulated capital, purely educational.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2008-11 to 2009-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 177 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 36.9% and a 35.8% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −36.9%
- Max run-up
- +35.8%
- Duration
- 177 days
- Largest single-day move
- −9.8%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In the autumn of 2008, the global financial system was unraveling and energy markets were in freefall. This replay simulates 122 daily bars of heating oil from 2008-11-17 to 2009-05-13, plunging traders into one of the most violent energy crashes of the 2000s. Participants face the full brutal arc of the collapse, from the initial plunge through the grinding bottom, with every session presenting real stakes in an environment stripped of the hindsight that would make these choices obvious.
Over the 122 trading days, heating oil fell from 1.79 to 1.49, a -16.8% decline that understates the violence of the journey. The market experienced a maximum drawdown of 36.9%, with the largest single-bar move hitting 9.8%, creating moments where overnight gaps could wipe out weeks of careful risk management. Seven critical decision points test whether traders can maintain discipline when positions are bleeding, position sizing feels inadequate, and the direction of least resistance is perpetually down. The 21 total decision points ensure participants must navigate not just the obvious inflection moments but also the quieter sessions where composure matters most.
This replay forces traders to confront the psychological challenge of staying systematic when capital is eroding and every rally looks like a trap. The experience reveals how position sizing decisions made before the storm feel entirely different when the storm arrives, and why having a predefined process matters more than conviction in the moment. The heating oil crash becomes a practical laboratory for understanding that survival in markets requires both technical edge and emotional discipline, neither sufficient alone.