US 20-City Composite Historical Replay: 2001-10 to 2004-03
Replay 30 monthly bars from October 2001 through March 2004 as the US 20-city home price index climbs 29.2%. You step through each decision point, weigh the bubble-era signals, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated training trades.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2001-10 to 2004-03 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 0.1% with a 29.2% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −0.1%
- Max run-up
- +29.2%
- Largest single-month move
- +1.6%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In October 2001, the US 20-city composite home price index enters a historical replay that would span 30 monthly bars through March 2004. This period marks the early phase of the subprime lending boom, when loose credit standards were beginning to inflate a national housing bubble. Participants face the challenge of navigating an environment where prices are rising steadily yet bubble-era warning signals are emerging beneath the surface. The stakes involve understanding how to identify unsustainable trends before they reverse, and how to manage positions when conventional risk metrics may be giving false comfort.
The index advances from 120.31 to 155.49, delivering a 29.2% cumulative gain over the 30-month window. Notably, the maximum drawdown recorded is just 0.1%, and the largest single monthly move reaches only 1.6%. These figures illustrate an exceptionally smooth uptrend with remarkably compressed volatility. Across the scenario, six decision points punctuate the replay, with two designated as critical junctures where positioning choices carry heightened consequence. The data presents what appears to be a nearly frictionless rising market, yet historical hindsight reveals these calm waters preceded a far more turbulent future.
For decision training, this replay exposes a critical psychological trap: low volatility can breed complacency and excessive confidence in long positioning. The teaching point centers on maintaining rigorous process discipline even when the market offers no immediate punishment for concentration risk. Participants must practice recognizing that minimal drawdown and gentle price action do not constitute proof of a healthy trend. The scenario emphasizes that bubble-era environments demand heightened scrutiny of credit conditions, position sizing discipline, and the humility to question narratives that feel perpetually bullish. This historical window serves as a classroom for building the emotional resilience needed when markets eventually reveal their true volatility.