Phoenix Historical Replay: 2016-06 to 2018-11
Replay 30 monthly bars from June 2016 through November 2018 as Phoenix housing climbed from 160.65 to 187.35. Walk through each historical day, navigate 6 decision points including 2 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2016-06 to 2018-11 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 0.1% with a 16.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −0.1%
- Max run-up
- +16.6%
- Largest single-month move
- +1.0%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Phoenix housing climbed steadily through the 2010s, and the replay spans June 2016 to November 2018—a 30-bar journey across 30 months where prices rose from 160.65 to 187.35. Participants enter a market that looks calm on the surface, yet must navigate 6 decision points including 2 marked as critical. The scenario asks: how do you behave when the macro backdrop supports continued appreciation but monthly candles offer only subtle signals?
The numbers tell a story of disciplined growth. Close moved from 160.65 to 187.35, a 16.6% gain over roughly two and a half years. The max drawdown of just 0.1% and largest single-bar move of only 1.0% define a market with almost no friction. Every bar looks like a validation of the prior one, yet the 6 decision points force a reckoning: at what price levels does holding feel comfortable, and where does conviction meet reality?
For decision training, this scenario is deceptively hard. Low volatility removes the adrenaline of dramatic swings, replacing it with the quieter test of staying process-driven. The psychology shifts from "can I survive the turbulence?" to "can I remain objective when nothing dramatic happens?" Participants learn that max drawdown discipline and systematic entry logic matter as much in a 0.1% drawdown environment as in a crisis. The two critical decision points reveal how even a steady climb demands clear criteria for when to adjust course.