Energy Sel SPDR Uptrend Replay (2018-12-24 to 2019-04-22)
Replay the XLE energy ETF from late 2018 through 2019, where the segment traced a 23.2% maximum drawdown on a 6.2% single-bar swing. Step through 150 daily bars, make choices at 11 decision points, and receive an AI coach review of each simulated move.
150 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2018-11 to 2019-06 · Stocks
Key facts
This window spans 221 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 23.2% and a 27.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −23.2%
- Max run-up
- +27.5%
- Duration
- 221 days
- Largest single-day move
- +6.2%
- Bars
- 150 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) found itself at a crossroads as 2018 drew to a close. Oil markets were volatile, geopolitical tensions were influencing commodity prices, and equity investors were reassessing their exposure to the energy sector. This replay scenario spans 150 daily bars from November 2018 through June 2019, placing participants directly into a period where the ETF closed the window at $30.73 versus an opening near $33.87, representing a -9.3% net decline despite the "boom" classification. The timing of entries and exits during this era could mean the difference between preserving capital and compounding losses.
The market's turbulence was marked by extreme volatility, with a maximum drawdown of 23.2% illustrating the severe downside risk. A single trading day saw a 6.2% swing, underscoring how quickly market conditions can shift. Across 11 decision points, with 4 deemed critical, traders had to navigate these dramatic price fluctuations, making each choice potentially transformative for their portfolio's performance. The scenario reveals how a seemingly bullish classification can mask treacherous intraperiod volatility that tests every position assumption.
This replay teaches the value of process over prediction. Participants must confront the psychological challenge of holding through a 23.2% drawdown when fundamentals suggest eventual recovery. The 6.2% single-bar moves demand disciplined risk sizing and pre-defined exit triggers, while the mix of critical and routine decision points highlights how portfolio outcomes hinge on a handful of high-stakes moments. Completing this scenario hones the ability to separate signal from noise, maintain conviction under pressure, and accept that survival through drawdown is a prerequisite for participating in any eventual upside.