Russell 2000 Uptrend Replay (1998-10-08 to 1999-01-11)
Replay 130 daily bars of the Russell 2000 spanning late 1998 into early 1999, a stretch marked by a 21.6% drawdown. Make your own calls at 11 decision points, including 4 critical ones, then receive an AI coach review of each simulated trade.
130 daily bars · 11 decision points · 1998-08 to 1999-02 · Stocks
Key facts
This window spans 189 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 21.6% and a 39.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −21.6%
- Max run-up
- +39.6%
- Duration
- 189 days
- Largest single-day move
- −5.7%
- Bars
- 130 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The Russell 2000 index tracks small-cap U.S. equities, a segment known for higher volatility than its large-cap cousins. In the autumn of 1998, this market entered a period framed as a "boom" scenario yet carried significant embedded risk. Over the coming months, participants would navigate a data set spanning 130 daily bars—from late summer 1998 through early 1999—confronting a market that would ultimately test their risk management discipline. The scenario captures the tension between momentum expectations and the reality of sharp reversals.
The numbers reveal the challenge: the index closed the period at 392.26, down 0.9% from its opening, despite the bullish framing. During this stretch, the market endured a maximum drawdown of 21.6%, a figure that underscores how treacherous "boom" periods can be. The largest single-bar move reached 5.7%, illustrating the volatility that small-cap traders must constantly account for. Eleven decision points were embedded throughout, with four marked as critical junctures where positioning would prove decisive.
This replay teaches that process matters more than outcome. The 21.6% drawdown reminds us that risk management cannot be suspended even in favorable narratives. The 5.7% single-bar moves counsel position sizing discipline—overexposure on volatile days compounds losses rapidly. For decision training, the 11 decision points serve as forcing functions: at each, traders must commit before seeing the next bar, building the habit of acting on defined plans rather than reacting to price. The psychological dimension—staying objective when the macro label says "boom" but the data shows drawdown—separates disciplined practitioners from those who let narrative drive decisions.
Featured in the archive