China National (Real Estate Climate Index, 1998+) Historical Replay: 2015-03 to 2017-10
Replay 30 monthly bars of China's national property boom-bust cycle from March 2015 to October 2017, capturing a 9.1% close-to-close swing with a 6.3% peak bar. You will navigate six decision points across simulated historical market days and receive AI coach review.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2015-03 to 2017-10 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 0.7% with a 9.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −0.7%
- Max run-up
- +9.9%
- Largest single-month move
- +6.3%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The replay immerses you in China's national property confidence cycle as measured by the national real estate sentiment index from March 2015 to October 2017, spanning 30 monthly bars across the 2010s. This period followed years of rapid housing expansion and preceded a policy-driven correction, placing investors and analysts at a critical juncture where reading momentum and policy signals meant the difference between riding a nascent recovery and being caught in a reversal. The scenario captures what proved to be a late-stage uptrend within a broader multi-year boom-bust pattern that had defined Chinese property markets for the preceding decade. Six decision points are embedded in the replay, two of which are flagged as critical, demanding timely responses to shifting market conditions.
The index moved from 93.11 to 101.54 over the 30-month window, delivering a 9.1% close-to-close gain with a remarkably tight maximum drawdown of only 0.7%. Yet this understated headline figure conceals the market's true volatility: a single monthly candle produced a 6.3% move that tested the conviction of anyone positioned for stability. The contrast between the benign drawdown floor and that explosive peak bar reveals how much can happen between the opening and closing of any given month, even when the aggregate trend appears calm. Participants must navigate these intraperiod swings without losing sight of the longer trajectory.
This replay sharpens the ability to distinguish between sustainable trends and transient spikes, a distinction that separates disciplined operators from reactive traders. The 0.7% maximum drawdown rewards those who manage position size carefully and resist overleveraging in quiet markets, while the 6.3% peak bar punishes those who lack a clear exit framework when momentum accelerates unexpectedly. Encountering two critical decision points forces participants to confront the psychological pressure of acting under uncertainty, building the habit of reviewing process rather than fixating on outcome. The takeaway is not a prediction but a refined decision-making instinct that transfers across market environments.