China National (Real Estate Climate Index, 1998+) Historical Replay: 2008-09 to 2011-05
Replay 30 monthly bars of China's national real-estate climate index from September 2008 to May 2011, navigating a 6.3% drawdown and six decision points in a post-stimulus boom. You step through each historical bar, face two critical decisions, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2008-09 to 2011-05 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 6.3% with a 11.8% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −6.3%
- Max run-up
- +11.8%
- Largest single-month move
- +2.1%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The replay centers on China's national real-estate climate index, a broad measure of property market health, during one of the most dramatic policy interventions in modern Chinese economic history. Participants navigate a 30-bar monthly sequence spanning September 2008 to May 2011, a period bookended by the global financial crisis and the early recovery of China's property sector. Six decision points—two deemed critical—test participants' ability to read shifting momentum and manage exposure through an unprecedented stimulus cycle.
The index closed at 101.15 at the start and 103.2 at the end, delivering a modest 2.0% return over the full period. However, this headline figure masks considerable turbulence: a maximum drawdown of 6.3% tested risk discipline, while the largest single monthly move of 2.1% demanded sharp reaction to sudden shifts in market direction.
This scenario distills several essential skills for decision training. The tension between the 6.3% drawdown and the 2.1% spikes illustrates the constant trade-off between protecting capital and remaining engaged during volatile markets. The two critical junctures serve as focal points for examining how conviction, timing, and psychological resilience interact under uncertainty. Rather than focusing on outcomes, the replay encourages participants to evaluate their process—whether they maintained discipline, adapted to changing conditions, and avoided reactive decisions driven by short-term volatility.
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