US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 2006-10 to 2014-01
Replay the U.S. national housing slide from October 2006 to January 2014, watching the FHFA index fall 12.7% across 30 months. You step through each monthly bar, face six decision points, and receive AI coach feedback on your choices in this simulated training scenario.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2006-10 to 2014-01 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 19.0% with a 7.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −19.0%
- Max run-up
- +7.4%
- Largest single-month move
- −3.1%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The replay transports participants into one of the most consequential housing downturns in modern American history. Between October 2006 and January 2014, the U.S. national housing market traversed the infamous subprime crisis and its prolonged aftermath, spanning two distinct decades and encompassing 30 monthly data points. The FHFA index serves as the benchmark for this replay, placing participants at the center of decisions made during a period when millions of homeowners, lenders, and policymakers faced extraordinary uncertainty about the future of residential real estate. Six decision points are embedded throughout the scenario, with two marked as critical junctures where choices carry heightened consequences for portfolio positioning.
The numbers tell a stark story. Starting at 378.91, the FHFA index declined to 330.84, representing a cumulative loss of 12.7% over the full period. However, the journey was far more turbulent than the final figure suggests. The maximum drawdown reached 19.0%, meaning anyone holding exposure experienced significant peak-to-trough deterioration at some point. Perhaps most tellingly, the largest single monthly move amounted to just 3.1%—a reminder that catastrophic losses often materialize through gradual erosion rather than sudden collapses. Investors who misinterpreted small monthly declines as overreactions likely exited prematurely, while those who maintained conviction through the extended downturn eventually witnessed a recovery.
This replay isolates how investors process prolonged adversity. Six decision points demand active engagement with uncertainty, with two critical moments testing conviction and risk tolerance. The scenario reveals that even during severe market stress, monthly volatility remained modest—exposing the psychological trap of recency bias, where recent losses amplify perceived future risk beyond what historical data supports.