US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 2005-04 to 2012-07
Replay the U.S. housing market across a 19.0% peak-to-trough drawdown from 2005-04 to 2012-07. Walk through 30 monthly bars and six decision points day by day, then receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2005-04 to 2012-07 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 19.0% with a 10.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −19.0%
- Max run-up
- +10.5%
- Largest single-month move
- −3.1%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scenario places participants in the U.S. national housing market from April 2005 through July 2012, a period that witnessed the collapse of the most significant real estate bubble in modern American history. Across 30 monthly bars, traders navigated a 19.0% peak-to-trough drawdown as the subprime mortgage crisis unfolded and home prices fell across virtually every major metro area. Six decision points, two designated as critical junctures, tested participants' ability to interpret shifting fundamentals in one of the world's most consequential asset classes. The stakes were substantial: housing underpinned household wealth, banking system stability, and broader economic confidence.
The data reveals the brutal arithmetic of a prolonged market unwinding. From a closing level of 344.03 at the start of the period, prices ultimately settled at 312.23, representing a net decline of -9.2% over the full span. Yet the real story lay in the path between those endpoints—the market experienced a maximum drawdown of 19.0%, meaning interim losses substantially exceeded the final outcome. Volatility manifested in a largest single-bar move of 3.1%, underscoring that even monthly snapshots concealed significant day-to-day turbulence. This combination of deep drawdown and erratic monthly swings created an environment where entries, exits, and position sizing demanded exceptional discipline.
For decision training, this replay emphasizes three enduring lessons: the danger of extrapolating recent trends in inherently cyclical markets, the importance of sizing positions to survive drawdowns that exceed consensus expectations, and the psychological challenge of maintaining process discipline when visible losses mount. Participants learn that surviving a crash requires not merely predicting direction, but building resilience into every simulated trade.
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