US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 2002-07 to 2009-10
Replay the U.S. national housing market across 30 monthly bars from July 2002 to October 2009, watching the index climb 21.1% before its 13.3% drawdown. You step through each historical day, face 6 decision points, and receive an AI coach review in this simulated training scenario.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2002-07 to 2009-10 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 13.3% with a 39.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −13.3%
- Max run-up
- +39.7%
- Largest single-month move
- +3.8%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The U.S. national housing market replay spans July 2002 to October 2009, covering the most turbulent period in housing since the Great Depression. This 30-month monthly scenario captures the final phase of the housing boom, the onset of the subprime crisis, and the subsequent market collapse. Participants face the challenge of navigating an index that climbs steadily before encountering a severe downturn, with 6 decision points requiring analysis of shifting market dynamics. The stakes involve understanding how to respond when a seemingly stable market begins to show cracks.
The index opened at 272.21 and closed at 329.73, representing a net gain of 21.1% over the period. However, this headline figure masks significant volatility, as the market experienced a maximum drawdown of 13.3% during the downturn phase. The largest single monthly move of 3.8% demonstrates the potential for sharp reversals, with the trajectory showing steady appreciation followed by a sharp contraction that erased much of the earlier gains.
This replay teaches the importance of position sizing and risk management when markets approach historical highs. The 13.3% drawdown illustrates how even moderate percentage declines can materially impact portfolios. Participants must practice exit discipline and psychological resilience, learning to act on deteriorating signals rather than rationalize them away. The scenario reinforces that macro-driven events can swiftly reverse long-standing trends, making it essential to reassess assumptions continuously rather than anchor to recent history.