China National (Real Estate Climate Index, 1998+) Historical Replay: 2002-04 to 2004-09
Replay thirty monthly bars of China’s national property index from April 2002 to September 2004, a period where the indicator closed with just a 0.2% net change yet endured a 3.9% drawdown. You make the calls across six decision points, including two critical turning moments, while the AI coach reviews each step in simulated capital.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2002-04 to 2004-09 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 3.9% with a 4.8% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −3.9%
- Max run-up
- +4.8%
- Largest single-month move
- +4.5%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Between April 2002 and September 2004, China's national property climate index entered a holding pattern that tested every trader's patience. Over thirty monthly bars, the market offered no clear trend—just lateral grinding with hidden volatility. Six decision points punctuated the replay, two of them critical junctures where direction could have shifted. Participants faced the classic dilemma: stay positioned or step aside when the trend refuses to confirm.
The closing values tell the story: the index opened at 104.6 and finished at 104.83, a net change of just 0.2%. Yet this apparent stasis concealed real turbulence—a maximum drawdown of 3.9% and a largest single-bar move of 4.5%. The flatness was an illusion; beneath the surface lay meaningful fluctuations that demanded constant monitoring and psychological resilience.
This replay reveals a fundamental truth: sideways markets extract the highest psychological toll. With no directional edge, traders must rely entirely on disciplined position sizing, strict stop-loss adherence, and emotional control. The scenario's six decision points train participants to resist overtrading when the market offers no clear signal. The critical moments especially test whether one can maintain process over outcome—when the index swings 4.5% in a single month yet closes nearly unchanged, the temptation to abandon strategy becomes acute. Success here is measured not by profit but by consistent execution of sound decision-making under uncertainty.
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