US National (Case-Shiller, 2000+) Historical Replay: 1994-04 to 1996-09
Replay 30 monthly bars from April 1994 to September 1996 as the U.S. national Case-Shiller index climbs 6.4% from 78.7 to 83.7. Step through each historical decision point in this simulated educational scenario and receive an AI coach review of your choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 1994-04 to 1996-09 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 0.4% with a 6.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −0.4%
- Max run-up
- +6.4%
- Largest single-month move
- +0.6%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Between 1994 and 1996, the U.S. residential property market entered a quiet phase of gradual recovery following the early 1990s recession. The Case-Shiller national index tracked monthly home price movements across this transformative period, when the economy was stabilizing and interest rates were settling into a new range. For participants replaying this era, the central question was how to navigate a market that was neither crashing nor booming but simply grinding higher with remarkable steadiness.
The index rose from 78.7 to 83.7 over 30 monthly bars, delivering a total return of 6.4%. The ride, however, was anything but eventful: maximum drawdown measured just 0.4%, and the largest single-month move never exceeded 0.6%. Six decision points were embedded in this sequence, with two flagged as critical junctures where positioning choices would have mattered most. This was a market that rewarded patience and punished overtrading.
The episode offers a different kind of training challenge: managing a portfolio when volatility is minimal and upside is modest. Participants learn to avoid forcing action in quiet markets, to size positions appropriately when momentum is subdued, and to resist the psychological itch to "do something" during low-activity stretches. The 0.4% drawdown reminds us that even calm periods carry embedded risk, while the 6.4% gain shows that steady compounding has its own quiet power.
Featured in the archive