US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 1987-07 to 1994-10
Replay 30 monthly bars of US national home prices from 1987-07 to 1994-10, watching the index climb 25.1% through six decision points. Step through each historical day, face two critical forks, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 1987-07 to 1994-10 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 0.4% with a 25.2% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −0.4%
- Max run-up
- +25.2%
- Largest single-month move
- +2.1%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Between July 1987 and October 1994, the US national home price index traced a long, grinding path across thirty monthly bars, and the FHFA-style tape became a quiet proving ground for patient capital. By the time the 1990 recession rolled in, the housing market was not a leveraged casino but a slow ledger of household balance sheets, demographic demand, and refinancing decisions. What was at stake on this replay was less a dramatic crash than a test of endurance: whether a participant could read a dull macro environment and still respect the cumulative weight of monthly moves.
What unfolded was a measured climb from 146.22 to 182.89, a gain of 25.1% spread across the full span, with a maximum drawdown of only 0.4% and the largest single-bar move a modest 2.1%. Six decision points punctuated the journey, two of them flagged as critical, yet none produced the kind of violent reversal that headlines demand. The lesson of the price action is that national housing is a slow instrument; the volatility shows up not in single months but in the dispersion between buyers who acted early and those who hesitated through the early 1990s dip.
For decision training, the value here is psychological rather than tactical. Participants who wait for a "crash" tag will find almost no drawdown to anchor on, forcing them to evaluate position sizing, holding horizon, and the cost of sitting still. The replay rewards process discipline: writing a thesis before each decision point, marking the two critical forks as moments to revisit conviction rather than to chase momentum, and reviewing whether a 0.4% pullback ever justified a structural change. It is, in short, a classroom for learning that the hardest trades are often the uneventful ones.