US 20-City Composite Historical Replay: 2009-11 to 2012-04
Replay 30 months of the Case-Shiller 20-City Index from November 2009 to April 2012, watching the close slip from 146.17 to 135.98, a 7.0% decline. Step through six decision points in simulated capital only, and receive an AI coach review of your choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2009-11 to 2012-04 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 9.9% with a 3.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −9.9%
- Max run-up
- +3.9%
- Largest single-month move
- +1.4%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index captures the pulse of American residential real estate across the decade's most turbulent housing markets. This replay spans 30 months from November 2009 to April 2012, a period when the aftermath of the subprime crisis still haunted property values across the nation. By late 2009, the initial crash had occurred, yet the market had not stabilized, leaving investors, homeowners, and policymakers uncertain whether the worst was behind them or ahead.
The index closed at 146.17 in November 2009 and drifted to 135.98 by April 2012, representing a -7.0% decline over the full period. However, the journey was bumpier than the net figure suggests, with a maximum drawdown of 9.9% from peak to trough. The largest single monthly move reached only 1.4%, indicating a market grinding sideways in gradual erosion rather than in dramatic plunges. Across six decision points, two marked as critical, participants navigate this slow-motion decline, weighing whether to hold, reduce exposure, or seek shelter in other assets.
This replay teaches the discipline of managing a losing position without panic. The modest monthly moves could tempt passive holders, yet the cumulative -7.0% and nearly double-digit drawdown underscore that "slow" declines still destroy capital. Participants confront psychological pressure to exit at lows, second-guess entry timing, and calibrate position sizing for a market with no clear catalyst for recovery. Mastering these decisions builds the quiet resilience essential for any long-term market participant.
Featured in the archive