US 20-City Composite Historical Replay: 2006-03 to 2008-08
Replay 30 monthly bars of the U.S. 20-City property index from March 2006, watching the index fall -19.2% to 164.65. Walk through six decision points, face critical calls, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated training choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2006-03 to 2008-08 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 20.3% with a 1.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −20.3%
- Max run-up
- +1.4%
- Largest single-month move
- −2.6%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scene opens in March 2006 with the U.S. 20-City Composite Home Price Index at 203.65. By this point, years of easy credit and speculative excess had built one of the largest asset bubbles in modern history. Participants in this replay face the task of navigating an index that would erase nearly a fifth of its value over the next 30 months—a period that would fundamentally reshape American finance and test every trader's assumptions about real estate stability.
What unfolds is a -19.2% decline to 164.65, punctuated by a maximum drawdown of 20.3% and occasional sharp single-month moves of 2.6%. Six decision points are embedded throughout this historical replay, with two marked as critical junctures where positioning would determine whether participants could mitigate losses or be caught overexposed. The monthly granularity reveals how the collapse was not a single event but an eroding process—months of false hope interspersed with accelerating drops that punished inertia and rewarded disciplined risk management.
This replay serves as a powerful reminder that even "safe" asset classes can experience prolonged drawdowns when fundamental assumptions shift. The -19.2% decline and 20.3% maximum drawdown are not merely statistics but represent the psychological toll of watching collateral erode while remaining uncertain whether the bottom had arrived. Participants learn that survival in such environments requires defined risk parameters, acceptance of missing early rebounds, and emotional discipline to avoid decision paralysis during extended periods of negative returns. The two critical decision points highlight how a single misstep during heightened volatility can dramatically alter outcomes.
Featured in the archive